In September 2022, the World Bank announced the possibility of a global recession in 2023, citing simultaneous interest rate increases by central banks worldwide in response to inflation. In response to this, students of Universitas Pelita Harapan (UPH) International Relations Study Program compiled a scientific paper titled “Balance of Power: The Impact of Geopolitics on the 2023 Economic Recession.” 

UPH students Gloria Miracle Melody Imanuel and Hanna Angel Roring analyzed the world’s geopolitical situation based on Neoliberalism theory and its correlation to the 2023 economic recession in their writing. Their analysis earned them third place in the Paper Presentation (PP) competition at the National Meeting of Indonesian International Relations Students (PNMHII), held at Udayana University in Bali from November 14 to 18. 

The issue of the 2023 economic recession has been a cause for concern among most Indonesians. Gloria and Hanna’s scientific paper examined expert opinions about the 2023 recession and compared them with previous crises, such as the Asian Financial Crisis and The Great Recession,and connected them with current economic conditions based on the theory of Neoliberalism. 

Their analysis predicted that global inflation would increase to 8.8% in 2022 and 6.5% in 2023. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) identified three major events hampering current economic growth: the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, and China’s economic slowdown. 

Hanna explained that their analysis led them to conclude that the 2023 recession would be less severe than previous ones, based on an examination of similar crises that occurred in previous years. 

“There is a simple pattern that can be observed from past recessions, which is hyperinflation. Additionally, uprisings and geopolitical tensions have contributed to the current situation, making it difficult to separate the problems. Finally, each country will eventually find its way to survive by balancing each other, whether through trade or other opportunities related to health, politics, or the economy,” explained Hanna. 

Gloria and Hanna expressed their gratitude for the collaboration and support they received from UPH lecturers and fellow students, calling it an extraordinary experience.  

“It is an honor for us to represent UPH in this national competition. The assistance provided by our lecturers in exchanging ideas and relevant lecture materials, such as International Political Economy and Theory of International Relations, helped us successfully complete this scientific work,” added Gloria. 

The 34th PNMHII event, themed “Navigating the Complexity of Present-Day Geopolitics,” was attended by 67 universities in Indonesia. 

Firman Daud Lenjau Lung, S.Sos., M.Sc, Head of the UPH International Relations Study Program, expressed his pride in Gloria and Hanna’s accomplishments. “The UPH International Relations Study Program is very proud of Gloria and Hanna’s achievements. We witnessed their hard work in compiling scientific papers since the beginning, and we are thrilled that they have won 3rd place. I am confident that this achievement will not only benefit UPH but also encourage Gloria and Hanna to continue developing themselves,” said Firman. 

For Gloria and Hanna, this activity provided an opportunity to meet and exchange ideas with students from all over Indonesia. They hope to continue improving their skills and contributing more to Indonesia.